10/16/2023 Interim Update – from desk of Jason Gordon, CPA/PFS, CFP®, MS Taxation

From the Desk of Jason Gordon, CPA/PFS, CFP®, MS Taxation

Interim Update

We just wanted to provide you with an update since last week’s attack on Israel by Hamas has
escalated into military conflict. You may be wondering how has the stock market reacted since? As of
this writing, the S&P 500 has actually increased about 1.5%. Your next question is probably “how
could this be?”

The main reason is actually very simple. The market has rallied this year because of 3 things:
Inflation has cooled, the economy has been resilient, and the Fed has signaled that they are pretty
much done with interest rate raises. As we have stated in our past few updates, the Fed is very data
dependent right now regarding interest rate moves. How high rates will need to go and how long
they will need to remain elevated is mostly dependent on whether inflation is continuing to soften
towards the Fed’s target rate of 2%. Although the war that has started between Israel and Hamas is
horrible on a humanitarian level, it has had little effect on the data that the Fed is looking at in making
their interest rate decisions.

Currently, the 10-year treasury yield is at 4.71%. As we enter earnings season, 2024 estimated
earnings for the S&P 500 remain at around $250/share. If this holds, any move lower on the 10-year
treasury rate will be a positive for stocks. Inflation data pretty much met expectations for the month,
while the labor market has continued to remain strong. Any softening in these would also be a
positive for stocks. The data recently has been mixed but has not done anything to change the
market’s viewpoint that the Fed is done raising rates. Now it is just a matter of how long they will be
elevated.

We are not looking to make any changes to client portfolios at this time. While we will
continue to monitor the events going on in the Middle East, to this point they are not something that
is affecting the market. Instead, we will be closely following treasury rates, the labor market, and
inflation data.

For those who have not had an annual check-up meeting or have any other questions, you can
contact myself or Anthony Sandomierski at anthony@oujowealth.com or 732-681-1384.

Sincerely,
Jason Gordon, CPA/PFS, CFP®, MS (Taxation)
Wealth Advisor
1540 Highway 138, Suite 106, Wall, NJ 07719
Direct – 732-681-2792